Please forward your comments/suggestions to robben99@gmail.com
As of 2014 Feb03 at 1:10am
PROJECT REPORT AS OF FEBRUARY 20, 2014 <<<possible release date
There are apparently many changes happening in the ocean and in coastal estuaries such as LIS (Long Island Sound). Some of this is reflected in (and probably causing) the obvious changing distributions of seabirds, such as the southward irruption of Razorbills during the previous two winters. Some seabirds are good bio-indicators for changes in their marine environment/ecosystem. We decided to take a harder look at all this, to try to understand it better, starting with the following efforts....
1. Razorbill winter distributions over recent years:
- a comparison of Razorbill winter distributions over the last several years, along the US East Coast, from Maine down to Florida, and including LIS of course.
2. Gannett changes over the decades:
- a comparison of recent Northern Gannet numbers in LIS, versus the few which were seen in LIS in the decades prior to 1985.
3. What do Razorbills, Gannets & other seabirds eat?
- a key question which needs to be understood better, since it may help us understand our seabirds better. Fortunately we have a lot of experts on these matters in CT and the north east, so we can have a good discussion about this in 2014.
4. LIS Bird Count:
- a month-long December count of all the birds in Long Island Sound (we excluded "land birds" except for Snowy Owl), on both the CT and NY sides, spanning the 110 miles of water from the Bronx at the west end, out to Orient, Stonington, Napatree, Plum Island and Fishers Island at the east end. We extended our count period to include December 1, 2013 through January 5, 2014 to include the last Christmas Bird Count (on Jan 5th) on the LIS coast. We wanted to improve our knowledge of two questions: what bird species are in LIS in December, and what changes might be happening.
5. Mapping and Modeling of LIS:
- a proposed effort for 2014 which will require discussion and planning.
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1. RAZORBILL WINTER DISTRIBUTION CHANGES:
The Razorbill comparison is not completed yet, but it appears that the southward irruption of this alcid was unusually large two winters ago 2011-2012, was much larger than that last winter 2012-2013, and this winter 2013-2014 it is back down closer to its normal levels of the last ten to twenty years. Razorbill numbers will be published by end of February.
Notice that an eBird map of Razorbills in Florida for last winter (left) and this winter (right) are radically different! The left map covers 3 months Dec-Feb, while the right map covers only 2 months Dec-Jan (since Feb 2014 has not happened yet), but that makes little difference to the main message.... there were radically more Razorbills in Florida last winter (which was unprecedented) than this winter (which is more typical)... Why this huge difference? Is it caused (at least partially) by what it eats, or is unable to eat?
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| Click to enlarge image. Press ESC key to return. Last winter on the left, and this current winter on the right. |
2. GANNET CHANGES OVER THE DECADES:
Northern Gannet increases south of Cape Cod may be indicating something we are not understanding fully yet. The Northern Nassau Christmas Bird Count, for example, had ZERO gannets for 38 years from its inception in 1953 until 1991, when it had its first gannet, actually 2 birds. After that the count had 4 in 1994, 1 in 1999 and 2000, 3 in 2001, 1 in 2003 and 2004, 4 in 2007, 16 in 2010, 18 in 2011, 2 in 2012 and 6 in 2013 this year. Clearly something has changed since 1991.
In E.Levine's 1998 book "Bull's Birds of New York State" J.Askildsen said,
"Previously considered uncommon to rare in LI Sound, beginning in 1985 this species [Northern Gannet] staged remarkable late-Nov invasions as far west as Larchmont, Westchester county during periods with sustained east winds... More recently small numbers have been observed from both sides of LI Sound intermittently throughout the winter and into mid-Spring, whenever east winds prevail. The original invasion in the fall of 1985 was probably weather-related. Today this annual Nov influx is expected and appears to be tied into the Sound being used as a food source."
This eBird map shows all the N.Gannets reported in and around LIS during December 2013 and January 2014 (thru Jan28). This is a lot more gannets than we could have found in LIS in earlier decades, for sure. <<I know because I was one of the birders out there looking for them every winter, for decades (1960s, 1970s, 1980s)>>
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| Red stick pin icons indicate sightings within the last thirty days (since Jan 28, 2014 today), so blue stick pins are mostly for December 2013 sightings. |
3. WHAT DO RAZORBILLS, GANNETS & OTHER SEABIRDS EAT?
Perhaps one cause of the changing numbers and distributions of seabirds is changes in what they eat. So lets try to identify what they eat, and then talk with experts on those things about possible changes in their numbers and distributions over the years and decades. This is a continuation follow-on piece of work for 2014 which was suggested by the seabird changes. Discussions on this effort have just started (including field observations from Al Collins). It is the next step in trying to understand our seabirds more completely, and a possible foundation for improving their conservation and survival.
4. LIS BIRD COUNT:
The December LIS Bird Count was successful thanks to a very large numbers of birders and other citizen scientists. Many observers contributed data, many trips were taken, and many birds were seen within LIS, including one or more of these exciting species of interest to bird science such as King Eider, Harlequin Duck, Barrow's Goldeneye, Pacific Loon, Red-necked Grebe, Western Grebe, Northern Gannet, Dovekie (Quonochontaug), Thick-billed Murre (Misquamicut), Common Murre (from Orient/NewLondon ferry), Razorbill, Black Guillemot, Black-headed Gull, Iceland Gull, Lesser Black-backed Gull, Glaucous Gull, and Snowy Owl.
A pelagic trip on Dec 2nd about 60miles SE of Shinecock LI, NY (outside LIS by about 70 miles), had 14 Northern Fulmars, 24 Black-legged Kittiwakes, 2 Great Skuas and four species of shearwaters. Unfortunately none of those more "pelagic" species were seen within LIS during our count, and only the kittiwakes have been seen within LIS with any regularity at all in recent decades.
<<a results/interpretations paragraph(s) summarizing the more interesting LIS Bird Count numbers will be placed here, and continuing our collaborative approach to this work, we would like to solicit opinions and inputs from all interested persons regarding any possible interpretations of this data, so please feel free to volunteer/contribute any commentary about the results of our LIS Bird Count, species by species and/or at a higher level>>
One change which is obvious to long-time birders around LIS, compared with the second half of the 1900s, is that there are many more Northern Gannets, Lesser Black-backed Gulls, and alcids in LIS. Finding these species within LIS, some in numbers, in the 1950-1990 decades would have been considered extremely unusual (and that was not for lack of trying... there were plenty of birders who were familiar with Gannets and alcids off the Atlantic coast of Long Island and New England who also tried to find them in LIS in those days).
These LIS BirdCount numbers are being assembled at the following online worksheet, where we continue to add columns to reflect trips and checklists as we receive and process the incoming data...
LIS Bird Count online summary worksheet <<<click and view this is work-in-progress.
This worksheet is probably only 70% complete, but the general patterns are emerging.
Note that the raw totals include some duplicate observations/reports of the same bird(s) and we will "de-dupe" those numbers as best we can during the next several weeks by analyzing the data and perhaps talking with the observers.
Raw data inputs (including paper data collection forms) will be copied and archived for anybody who might want to do a deeper analysis, at some future date.
This LIS Bird Count was a deliberate experiment to census LIS birds (over that entire large body of water, for five weeks) and collect bird observations in many different ways, including several different kinds of boat trips (using several different survey protocols), Christmas Bird Count partnerships (with a dozen CBCs in NY and CT), eBird sharing (over 230 trip checklists were shared with our eBird account "LIS BirdCount"), listserv advertising, ad hoc reporting, repeated daily counts in one area throughout December, etc. An analysis of these methods will be published in several months.
Many people contributed to this LIS Bird Count, with contributors based in CT, NY and elsewhere. A list of contributors is being assembled and will be published. If you are a contributor, but do not want your name on this list, please contact us at robben99@gmail.com
Future plans for this LIS Bird Count may include doing it again every December, or doing it every ten years, or doing some variation of it every month of the year, or never doing it again, TBD.
Further information on this LIS Bird Count will be published at this website over the next several months, and high-lighted at the top of this site.
One benefit of this bird count has been the establishment and strengthening of partnerships with birders and organizations in different towns, in CT and in NY. This collegial infrastructure can be built upon for additional field work and knowledge sharing, and it will make a repeat of this bird count easier next time.
One of the goals of this project, to get more young people involved and more interested in Nature and especially birds, has not had notable success, yet, but we will continue to work toward that this year.
And thanks again to you, every contributor and partner, each and every one, including the compilers, captains and observers on all of the dozen Christmas Bird Counts around the perimeter of LIS.
5. MAPPING AND MODELING OF LIS:
This is a proposed thread of 2014 work to follow-up on the locational information about the birds we found during the December LIS Bird Count, and then adding observations around the year, covering all seasons. It is also hoped to include key characteristics about each of the locations mapped/modeled, so that we can understand more about areas (and birds) which might be impacted most by the next storms. A prototype to demonstrate the possibility is under development now. This potential effort needs to be discussed and planned.
From the COA Research Committee:
P.Auster, S.Broker, A.Collins, P.Comins, M.Huang, M.Lyman, P.Lynch, F.Mantlik, K.Mueller, N.Proctor, T.Robben, L.Wahle, P.Wolter, A.Zemba.
